One thing you can always count on during an election cycle is that nothing is guaranteed to stay the same. The candidate with the lead one day may find that lead erode or evaporate the next.

Just this week with the entrance of Richard Moncure into the race on the Democratic side, the issue for Democrats seemed to be where to have their caucus slated for Aug. 13 — in Warsaw at one location or in each county as the county chairs were considering. With the Democratic caucus Chair Pearl Smith out of town and out of reach, that issue was at a standstill.

Then Monday afternoon, that race got tossed into the can when Moncure announced he was withdrawing from the race. Now, how Democrats will certify their only remaining candidate Nicholas Smith is the issue. And how much support the party will give Smith is another question for Democrats who know the polls show the Northern Neck with Republicans in the majority at 65 percent compared to Democrats at 35 percent.

As for Republicans things have been going swimmingly for Margaret Ransone who had almost 300 folks in attendance at her party at Horn Point last Friday. While

the rain storm at the appointed party hour was fearsome, the crowd made its way to Kinsale for a good time and some good political rhetoric. Her big campaign supporters who spoke during the party were Senator Richard Stuart who has endorsed her, former Senator John Chichester, Congressman Rob Wittman, and Delegate Scott Lingamfelter.

The race almost seems to be hers to lose.

She is an attractive candidate, says she believes what most people in the Neck believe, has the big money behind her and the proper political support.

Republican Dean Sumner, a most attractive candidate who has legislative experience based on three elections to his county school board and business experience gleaned from years owning a golf course, has every right to be as popular a candidate as Ransone, he just doesn’t have the support of the political and financial heavyweights who have signed on to the Ransone campaign. His will be an uphill fight to the primary day, Aug. 23.

But the election is in August and who knows what will happen. Between now and then party officials have to select polling places and debate locations and take whatever else is thrown their way politically.

That just may be happening this week. Caroline County resident John Lampmann, while not new to the race, but perhaps new to the general public, may end up being the wild card in the remaining weeks of the campaign.

Lampmann brings a wealth of political and legislative experience to the race having been Chief of Staff to Congressman Lamar Smith for 18 years. Smith is the current Chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.

 Up until now Lampmann has not engaged himself in the Sumner/Ransone sign wars. He has spent his time visiting Republican and tea party meetings with his message, but he has not been visible to the general public, for whatever that is worth. This week, however, he is going public and will add a new twist to the campaign.

While Lampmann declares his allegiance to all the issues and ideas of the two other candidates — lower taxes, conservative values, job creation, energy independence, budgetary discipline, etc., etc. — Lampmann is striking right at the heart of the problem faced by legislators in the Northern Neck and other rural areas — control by state party interests that favor urban areas over rural communities.

What he is espousing may just be the thing that got under the skin of Albert Pollard in his sojourn to Richmond. What Lampmann wants to change in Richmond is control by the state party over the future of the rural areas in Virginia, particularly the Northern Neck. Candidate Lampmann told The Journal at an editorial board meeting this week that “Both candidates, Ransone and Sumner, have signed on to take up to $250,000 from the state party should they win the primary election. Any candidate who takes that much money from Richmond signs up to be confiscated by urban interests.”

Lampmann says that there is a four-to-one urban majority in the General Assembly and when issues are decided in Richmond, they favor urban areas over the rural communities. Lampmann says that if elected in the primary he will not take Richmond money and will work to establish a rural coalition so that the rural communities are heard and protected. He thinks by taking this oath he can separate himself from the other two candidates and get the public to understand where the Northern Neck is being shortchanged in Richmond.

In the 1999 contest between Republican Henry Lane Hull and Democrat Albert Pollard, Hull found out the hard way what taking money from Richmond meant. During the last week of his campaign the State Republican Party stepped in over top of Hull’s local campaign and brought in an issue, against his wishes, which lead to his defeat.

So, the race will now heat up, get down to business and work to get the public alerted and energized about the vote on Aug. 23. Since the thinking among those interested in politics is that whoever wins the Republican primary will be the standard bearer in Richmond, the race to the prize is now joined. Keep watching, get involved and plan to vote.